Cantarelli, Chantal C., David Oglethorpe, & Bert van Wee (2021, May). Perceived risk of lock-in in the front-end phase of major transportation projects. Transportation. (ePub in advance of print) (doi: 10.1007/s11116-021-10191-7) (https://doi.org/10.1007/s11116-021-10191-7) (Open Access: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11116-021-10191-7)
Abstract: Lock-in is defined as the tendency to continue with an inefficient decision or project proposal. The front-end phase is critical to project success, yet most studies have focused on lock-in in the implementation phase. Moreover, little is known about the way in which decision-makers perceive the risk of lock-in. In this paper we identify determinants of lock-in in the front-end phase and we reveal decision-makers’ perceptions of risk of lock-in. Our findings show that risk attitudes towards lock-in vary with the level of risk aversion. However, this is not sufficiently acute to drive the level of regret needed to avoid lock-in. This implies that decision-makers do not accurately assess the risk of lock-in and as such their risk perceptions are a mediating factor in the formation of lock-in. Based on escalation of commitment, path dependency, and prospect theory, the main contribution lies in providing a more comprehensive understanding of lock-in in the front-end phase.
Chantal C Cantarelli <c.c.cantarelli@sheffield.ac.uk> is in the Management School, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK.
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